While researching web service best practices I came across Gartner’s Hype Cycle and was immediately impressed with its simplicity and clarity. It summed up in a simple graph the wild technological rollercoaster ride I’ve (and probably you too) have been on for most of my career. Early on I used to fall for the “coolest” gadgets, the “hot” languages and the “latest” architectures. I’d spend a lot of money and time on books, courses and software in an effort to get up to speed. Aggravatingly, it seemed, I was just in time to see the coolest gadgets cool-off and the hot languages fall by the wayside and replaced by a new wave. Early out of college this was self-inflicted because I wanted to make an impact with my employer. Which lead to enough successes to justify the effort. But then in the early nineties something strange happened. My employer started bringing me the cutting edge technologies to see if there was any business value. And sadly, the same cycle reoccurred. But this time the amount of money, effort and time were exponentially growing with each project. I was amazed at how easy it was for them to drop a million on software license and then in a blink of an eye drop it like yesterday’s dishwater. Yet after the dust settled we did seem to gain from the experience and our technologies matured.
For me the Hype Cycle was in full swing through most of the nineties (until the bubble burst). Consultants would come in and tell us we were too centralized and that we needed to be more distributed. Projects would kick off, we’d ramp up the staff, buy new hardware\software and get either deep into the requirements gathering or development phase when a new consultant or magazine article would say we were too distributed and should be more centralized. Now looking at the Hype Cycle it is clear that the Technology Trigger was the catalyst that spurred management to finance these projects based on perceived benefits. But at the Peak of Inflated Expectations it would dawn on them they fell for the sales-speak or another technology trigger just popped up on their radar. Projects would either die right there or they gasp for life during the Trough of Disillusionment. During this phase it took brave heroes who had the vision to see there was merit directly or indirectly in the technology and if they were able to persuade management to reconsider the technology the Slope of Enlightenment would begin which would lead to actual benefits and to the Plateau of Productivity. I don’t know if any of these cycles could have been avoided but certainly the range of the wild swings and silly slope of enlightenment battles could have been managed better.
To summarize the five phases of the Hype Cycle:
Technology TriggerThe first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
Peak of Inflated Expectations
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
Trough of Disillusionment
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
Slope of Enlightenment
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
Plateau of Productivity
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
